Real Estate Market Conditions

April 2012 Goodyear Real Estate Market Conditions

May 8, 2012

Hello all,
     What we are experiencing now is the built up glut of buyers that have been waiting for the market to bottom out which actually happened in about August of last year. A lot of wise people say you never know when the bottom hit until well after it has and that's absolutely true.
     I still believe that new construction is the best bet for many people just because of the competitiveness of the regular market. There are currently 10,040 single family homes for sale in all of the Phoenix area. There are over 17,000 pending sale and 6800 have closed in the last 30 days. Inventory is not coming on the market fast enough to keep up with buyer demand so home builders are seeing crazy activity. If you need help finding information about a good home builder in your area, let me know. I have helped 3 people already this year with a new home purchase.
    I'll leave you with some Goodyear specific stats:
Active single family homes: 256
Pending: 496
Closed last 30 days: 167
Months supply: 1.53
Average sales price: $189,918 (99% of list price, $85.58 per sq ft)
     I believe it won't be long before many of you wanting to move but are without equity will be able to.
-Neal

April 2012 Goodyear Real Estate Market Conditions

April 6, 2012

Happy April and Happy Easter! I wish I could say that things are different today than one month ago but they are not. Well, maybe a little different, out inventory is lower today than a month ago, we have fewer new listings coming on the market than a month ago, home builders are selling more today than a month ago. If anybody wants information on the best places to buy right now, let me know.
   Here is some information from my latest sales meeting:
April 1 - 2005 Active Listing shortage was across the board at almost all price ranges.
However in 2005, supply rose rapidly from April 1 onward. Currently we are at the same
level in active listings without contract as in the second week of September 2005. However
our supply shortage is heavily skewed towards the lower price ranges.
March 31 - A pattern is emerging. This is what a powerful home price recovery looks like
with active listings down 11% in the last 4 weeks alone.
March 30 - There were a total of 2,091 trust deed sales in Maricopa County - 6% lower than
February. There were 5,173 in March 2011 - down 60% compared to last year. Fewer trustee
deeds recorded than in any month since January 2008.
March 29 - New listings are being added to ARMLS at the slowest rate since the current
ARMLS database began in 2000. Jan and Feb listings are well down compared with the
same month last year. We are going to be substantially down from both Mar 2010 and
2011. It is certain to come in at the lowest level for any March in the last 13 years.
March 28 - Today a new record of 8.68% for positive percentage change in average sales
price per square foot over a single 30-day period. This beats the fastest price rise we saw
during the bubble era, which was 7.47% on February 2, 2005. The fastest rate of change
over the last decade was measured on October 1, 2007, but this was a negative change
of 9.02%.
March 27 - Phoenix again leads with a 0.9% improvement in the S&P/Case-Shiller® Home
Price Index from 101.91 in December to 102.84 in January. 16 cities were down. Worst was
San Francisco CA (down 2.5%), For the first time since August 2010, Phoenix also showed
pricing improvement on a year-on-year basis.
March 26 - Since March 26, 2011, active SFR listings have declined as follows:
• Under $100,000 - down 87%
• $100,000 to $200,000 - down 64%
• $200,000 to $400,000 - down 34%
• $400,000 to $800,000 - down 19%
• Over $800,000 - down 15%
   Goodyear is matching the trend, here are the stats:
295 active listings
482 under contract
172 closed in the last 30 days (1.7 month supply)
Average sales price: $174,138 ($77.43 per sq ft)
    Those of you waiting for values to come back, it's happening! We are still pre 2003 levels but with the inventory being eaten up so fast, we will have a sling shot value increase. Wait for it!
-Neal

March 2012 Goodyear Real Estate Market Conditions

March 7, 2012

Supply shorter yet

Well, all the builders that weathered the down turn are thriving now! Many builders like Richmond American, Shea, Taylor Morrison and others have been buying small parcels and filling in old subdivisions. We're almost to the point of waiting lists for builders now. I attended a Taylor Morrison grand opening in Peoria last Friday. They have 21 lots for sale. 3 of them were reserved prior to the grand opening! These are homes starting in the low 300,000 range too. Imagine the activity the ones under $200,000 are getting!
       Today there are 12,218 active listings in our entire MLS, that is the lowest it has EVER been. There are 17,338 under contract and 6410 have closed in the last 30 days. That's less than a two month supply in the entire MLS. Let's look after you skim the wealthy home buyer out and go $250,000 and under:
5879 Active
14501 Under Contract
5234 Closed in last 30 days
      In my experience working with buyers recently in all price ranges, the homes that are on the market without offers are not in very nice condition, slim pickings. I've always erred on the side of caution but I think I can pretty safely say that-barring a national disaster-anyone that has bought a home in the last 2 years will be pretty happy in another 2-5 years and anyone that buys today will be happy period!
   New construction continues to be the best option out there for anyone. Energy efficiency, larger lots, NEW stuff!

February 2012 Goodyear Real Estate Market Conditions

February 8, 2012

I know all of you out there are hanging on the edge of your seats waiting for the exciting new news about our market.... This is NO NEW NEWS! Inventory is continuing to decrease, foreclosure notices are decreasing and the number of trustee sales are decreasing. The experts of our area have officially stated that the "bottom" occurred in the last quarter of 2011 and that many areas have seen appreciation and prices are up 8% overall from the low point. The number of active listings is down 52% from a year ago and 79% of the pending listings are below $200,000.
If there are any of you that are waiting for more good news to make your decision on whether or not to purchase a home this year, you are going to be left standing alone without a home. If anyone doubts me, please join me for a consultation on specific statistics in your area of interest and then we'll go out and shop for a home. You will see immediately that it is VERY difficult to purchase a home right now. Anything that's in good condition and priced within reason has 3-5 buyers lined up to buy it. Don't believe me? Give it a try, worst case scenario is you get a home!
Current Goodyear stats:
Active listings: 360
Pending and AWC: 446
Closed in last 30 days: 152-2.36 month supply
Stats on homes in Goodyear under $200,000-120 active, 102 closed in last 30 days=1.17 month supply. We have a shortage, get in line now!

January 2012 Goodyear Real Estate Market Conditions

January 24, 2012

Another month, more of the same! Our housing inventory in the valley continues to decrease. I have been working with some people looking at new homes in Peoria and we are experiencing an unbelievable interest in new construction! Subdivisions that are in the process of opening are getting a lot of inquiries about available lots, pricing, etc. This is all coming from the fact that there are so few good re-sale properties available.

Goodyear at the moment has 383 active listings (368 single family homes), there are 447 under contract and 133 have closed sale in the last 30 days which leaves us a 2.87 month supply of homes so while the number of homes in the Goodyear inventory has decreased slightly, so have the sales. Our average sales price in the past month was $164,459 (up $7000), 98% of list price and an average square footage of 2285, sold price per square foot was $71.74 which is a slight increase from last month. That’s consistent with the rest of the market. You’re not hearing it, but the bottom has come and gone!

My colleagues from my office are attending a meeting with the founder of the Cromford report-the ONLY truly accurate real estate data publicly reported. I’ll be posting some stats and other information they bring me. Stay tuned!

-Neal